Published: September 25, 2026

 

Wall Street Starts Friday With a Cautious Gain

U.S. stocks opened Friday with modest gains as investors weighed renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence against pressure from higher Treasury yields, elevated oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the Middle East.

Early trading had the Dow Jones Industrial Average up about 0.34%, the S&P 500 up 0.18% and the Nasdaq up 0.21%, according to Reuters. The moves followed a mixed session on Thursday, when the S&P 500 finished nearly unchanged, the Nasdaq gained slightly and the Dow fell 0.31%.

The market remains highly sensitive to changes in bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 5.2% Thursday, its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5.4%. Higher yields can affect stock valuations by increasing borrowing costs and changing the relative attractiveness of bonds compared with equities.

For investors following the broader market, Friday’s action is therefore being shaped by two competing forces: optimism about corporate spending on artificial intelligence and concerns about inflation and interest rates.

AI Infrastructure Takes Center Stage With Akamai and Anthropic

One of the biggest individual stock stories Friday is Akamai Technologies ($AKAM) after the company announced an $11.6 billion, seven-year cloud services agreement with Anthropic.

The agreement is designed to support Anthropic’s growing CPU computing requirements through Akamai’s distributed cloud infrastructure. The deal could potentially expand by another $9 billion, bringing the total potential commitment to approximately $20 billion.

Akamai also disclosed that Anthropic received a warrant that could eventually represent approximately 5% of Akamai’s common stock, subject to the expansion of the relationship and other conditions.

The announcement produced a sharp reaction in Akamai shares, with the stock rising significantly in premarket and early trading. The deal also illustrates an increasingly important theme in the AI investment cycle: demand is spreading beyond companies that design AI chips toward cloud infrastructure, networking, data centers and other supporting technologies.

Akamai said the agreement is expected to require approximately $5.5 billion of related capital expenditures. The company expects approximately $1.7 billion of that spending to occur during 2026 as it secures infrastructure and components.

Microsoft Pushes Further Into AI Software

Microsoft ($MSFT) is also drawing attention after unveiling changes to Copilot that expand its capabilities around code generation and AI agents.

The development comes as major technology companies increasingly compete to turn generative AI from a standalone chatbot experience into software capable of completing multi-step tasks.

Microsoft’s move is significant for the broader technology sector because the commercial value of AI increasingly depends on how effectively companies integrate these systems into everyday business software.

The market reaction to AI news has remained mixed, however. While infrastructure-related companies have benefited from expectations for continued spending, investors are also examining whether enormous AI capital expenditures can translate into sustainable revenue and earnings growth.

That distinction is becoming increasingly important as the AI trade expands from semiconductor companies into cloud providers, software companies, data-center operators and infrastructure suppliers.

Oracle’s Data Center Issue Highlights AI Infrastructure Risks

The AI infrastructure story is not entirely positive.

Oracle ($ORCL) came under pressure Thursday after reports that the company issued a force majeure notice related to a major data center project in New Mexico. The project is associated with Blue Owl Capital’s ($OWL) infrastructure operations.

The concern centers on potential delays affecting the planned data center and the financial commitments associated with bringing the facility online. Oracle shares fell sharply during Thursday’s session.

The development highlights a less-discussed part of the AI infrastructure boom. Building enormous computing capacity requires much more than purchasing GPUs. Projects also depend on electricity, land, cooling systems, networking equipment, construction timelines and access to financing.

As AI-related infrastructure spending increases, investors are likely to pay greater attention to whether companies can actually deploy the physical capacity implied by their long-term contracts.

Strong Capital Goods Orders Signal Continued Business Investment

New U.S. economic data provided another important signal Friday.

Orders for core capital goods, a measure closely watched as an indicator of business investment, increased 1.6% in August, exceeding expectations. Shipments of these goods increased 0.6%, while data for the previous month was revised higher.

The figures suggest businesses continued investing in equipment during the third quarter.

Artificial intelligence infrastructure is one contributor to that investment cycle, but the data also points to broader corporate spending. Strong business investment can support economic growth, although it can also complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook if demand remains strong.

That creates a difficult balance for financial markets. Strong economic data can support corporate earnings, but it can also reduce expectations for faster interest-rate cuts or increase the possibility of additional tightening.

Federal Reserve Rate Expectations Remain a Major Market Driver

Federal Reserve policy remains one of the most important variables for stocks heading into the final months of 2026.

New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday that another interest-rate increase before the end of the year could be appropriate, although he did not commit the Federal Reserve to a specific decision. His comments came as Treasury yields moved sharply higher.

The market is therefore entering a period where incoming inflation and employment data could have an outsized impact on expectations for monetary policy.

Reuters reports that investors will closely monitor the upcoming U.S. employment report and inflation data, including the personal consumption expenditures report, for evidence about the direction of interest rates.

The combination of strong business spending, elevated oil prices and persistent inflation concerns has made the interest-rate outlook less straightforward than it appeared earlier in the year.

Oil Prices and Middle East Developments Add Another Layer of Uncertainty

Energy markets remain another major factor for stocks.

Oil prices climbed earlier in the week as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East raised concerns about energy supplies and the Strait of Hormuz. Prices eased Friday as investors monitored reports of potential negotiations involving the United States and Iran.

Lower oil prices can provide some relief for markets because energy is a major input cost throughout the economy. A sustained increase in crude prices, by contrast, could place additional pressure on inflation and corporate margins.

That makes oil particularly important right now because it intersects with the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions. Higher energy prices can contribute to inflation just as investors are already watching unusually high Treasury yields.

Investors Return to U.S. Equities as AI Optimism Supports Sentiment

Despite the recent volatility, flows into equities have shown renewed strength.

Reuters reported Friday that global equity funds attracted their largest weekly inflows since early July, ending a two-week period of outflows. U.S. equity funds also recorded their first inflow in five weeks, with demand for AI-related investments and a pullback in oil prices contributing to improved sentiment.

The data suggests that investors remain willing to allocate capital to equities despite concerns about rates, inflation and geopolitical risk.

At the same time, the market’s dependence on a relatively narrow group of AI-related companies remains an important factor to monitor. The latest developments involving Akamai, Microsoft, Oracle and Meta show how quickly individual AI stories can move across different parts of the technology sector.

What to Watch as the Third Quarter Comes to a Close

With the third quarter approaching its end, markets are entering a particularly data-heavy period.

Investors will be watching several key themes:

• Federal Reserve policy: Whether inflation and employment data support additional rate increases.
• Treasury yields: Whether the recent surge in long-term yields continues.
• AI spending: Whether companies continue committing billions of dollars to computing infrastructure.
• Corporate earnings: Whether increased AI investment begins translating into measurable revenue and profit growth.
• Oil prices: Whether Middle East developments lead to further volatility in energy markets.
• Economic growth: Whether strong capital spending continues into the fourth quarter.

Friday’s market action captures the broader tension facing Wall Street. Investors continue to see substantial growth potential from artificial intelligence, while higher borrowing costs, oil prices and inflation remain significant sources of uncertainty.

For now, the stock market is balancing those forces rather than moving decisively in either direction. The next round of economic data and corporate developments could determine which theme receives greater attention as the fourth quarter begins.