By Alex Financials

Record‑High S&P 500 & Tech Plateau

The S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high at 6,304, marking the tenth record close of 2025 and moving up over 7% year-to-date. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has staged a strong performance, powered by the “Magnificent 7” tech giants ($AAPL, $MSFT, $GOOG, $AMZN, $META and affiliating names). Commentary is mixed—some bullish historical signals point to possible further gains toward Q4, but caution mounts as growth expectations normalize for these high-profile names.

Tariff Shock Hits General Motors

General Motors ($GM) dropped nearly 7% in early trading after reporting a $1.1 billion Q2 tariff cost, despite beating EPS expectations at $2.53. The company reaffirmed its 2025 tariff outlook at $4–5 billion and warned of potentially higher Q3 costs. In a twist, GM later recovered part of its losses—climbing 3.4%—after highlighting strong auto deliveries, a 111% increase in EV sales, and a 0.7% gain in U.S. market share.

Biotech and Clinical Upside

Biotech and clinical-research plays led the charge in pre-market trading:

• Medpace Holdings surged ~54% on robust Q2 earnings and optimistic guidance.

• IQVIA Holdings also rallied ~8.8% ahead of the open.

These biotech strength highlights the sector’s resilience compared to industrials amid simmering trade fears.

Homebuilders Shine, Defense Stocks Mixed

D.R. Horton soared 15% on better-than-expected Q3 home delivery and margins. Bolstering this trend, broader homebuilding stocks rallied amid strong housing demand.

In contrast, defense stocks experienced mixed results:

• Northrop Grumman gained 9.5% after beating revenue forecasts and benefiting from a business sale.

• Lockheed Martin declined 8–8.5% thanks to a $1.7 billion one-time charge.

Retail Frenzy Raises Correction Concerns

Retail investors have poured nearly $50 billion into equities over the past month and are on pace for approximately $360 billion in H2 inflows, according to JPMorgan and Barclays. Goldman Sachs sounded the alarm, citing extreme bullish sentiment and investor risk appetite as signs of a possible near‑term pullback. Still, they maintain a long-term optimistic stance.

Commodity Snapshot & Crypto Highlight

• Bitcoin reached above $119,000, jumping about +1.9% pre-market.

• Oil and gold prices saw modest declines, with Brent crude down ~0.9% and gold off ~0.24%.

• Meanwhile, 10‑year Treasury yields rose to around 4.397%.

Macro Risks & Fed Watch

Markets are maintaining a cautiously optimistic tone, driven by sound economic data and strong earnings, even as trade tensions, Federal Reserve scrutiny, and U.S. public debt concerns bubble under the surface. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s push to review Fed independence has stirred political unease. Macro indicators look positive—U.S. GDP growth is around 2.4%, and corporate earnings for reporting companies are up ~6.7%.

Outlook & What to Watch Next

• Tech earnings on deck: Tesla ($TSLA) and Alphabet are due after the bell tomorrow—markets are already positioned cautiously.

• Tariff noise: Watch for developments ahead of the Aug 1 trade deadlines; further costs could hit global industrials.

• Retail investor activity: If inflows slow or sentiment shifts, volatility may spike.

Summary

The U.S. market remains supported by strong earnings and economic momentum, even as systemic risks—tariffs, Fed independence concerns, and elevated retail euphoria—increase the odds of a short-term correction. Investors will be watching upcoming tech earnings and policy developments closely.