By Alex Financials

📈 U.S. Indices Inch Higher Amid Earnings & Trade News

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed modestly on Thursday, while the Dow lagged behind.

• Optimism around U.S.–EU trade talks (potential 15% tariffs on some EU imports, others dropped) and fresh deals with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia helped buoy global markets.

• Treasury yields ticked up, gold declined, and global stocks (Asia/Europe) stayed firm.

🚗 Tesla ($TSLA): ‘Rough Quarters’ Ahead

• Q2 earnings came in below consensus—adjusted EPS of $0.40 vs. expectations (~$0.42), with revenue down ~12% year-over-year to $22.5 billion—the steepest drop to date.

• CEO Elon Musk warned of “a few rough quarters ahead,” prompting a ~7–8% drop in Tesla shares during trading.

• Contributing factors include reduced EV incentives, lower vehicle deliveries in key markets (notably Europe and California), dwindling regulatory credits, and competition in China.

• Analysts from MarketWatch and Business Insider noted mixed reactions—some remain optimistic (Morgan Stanley maintains a ~$410 target citing new models, fleet options, and xAI vote), others see politics as a potential headwind.

🍏 Apple ($AAPL): Mixed Signals, Eyeing Q3 Earnings

• Apple stock has rebounded recently, trading near $215, with volume picking up.

• Bank of America upgraded AAPL to “Buy,” projecting a July price target of $235, reflecting a potential 17% upside ahead of the iPhone 17 launch in September.

• Consensus suggests a forward P/E ratio of ~26.5—slightly below the 5-year average—viewed as an attractive entry level.

• However, some analysts are cautious: Apple’s core iPhone revenue has plateaued since 2021, while competitors like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet have seen stronger growth.

• On the defensive, Service revenue exceeded $100 billion annually, but underwhelming hardware launches (e.g., mixed-reality Vision Pro) raised concerns.

• Investors await Apple’s fiscal Q3 earnings on July 31, expected at EPS ~$1.42 on $88.6 b in revenue.

🏦 Broader Market Themes & Upcoming Catalysts

1. Earnings Season Strong: ~80–85% of S&P 500 companies are beating estimates, with favorable revenue and guidance trends.

2. Trade Tailwinds: Moves on tariffs, especially US–EU and US–Japan deals, are providing relief after months of uncertainty.

3. Fed Watch: Persistently low jobless claims (~217,000) and steady inflation suggest the Fed is likely to hold rates, with markets pricing in a ~62% chance of a September rate cut.

4. International Pressure: Indian indices fell (Sensex down ~542 pts, Nifty <25,100) amid weak IT earnings, uncertainty over US‑India trade, and Trump’s surprise Fed visit.

5. ECB on Pause: European Central Bank maintained rates at 2%, acknowledging global uncertainty and cooling inflation.

📊 Stocks to Watch

Also notable in pre-market: WST, ICLR, RPM, EPRT, NOW gained 7–17%, while CMG and DOW declined sharply.

🔍 What to Monitor Next

• Earnings reactions from Tesla and Alphabet throughout the day.

• Upcoming data & decisions: Fed rhetoric, jobless claims, ECB watch.

• Geopolitical shifts: Trade updates between the U.S., EU, China, India.

🧭 Final Take

The U.S. market remains supported by strong earnings and easing trade fears, though structural cracks show in Tesla’s EV slowdown and Apple’s lack of fresh hardware. The next key pivot points will be late-July earnings (Apple, tech peers) and central bank messaging. Consider positioning tactically: modest exposure to high-quality tech, with eyes on rate cuts and further trade resolution.