By Alex Financials

Mixed Futures, Calm Pre‑Market Ahead of Key Data

• S&P 500 futures are largely flat, with just a –0.02% dip, while Dow futures edged down 0.17%.
• The CBOE VIX (volatility index) also softened, signaling investor risk tolerance remains elevated despite geopolitical and inflation concerns.

Fed Independence & Trump Policy Uncertainty

Market watchers are scanning every headline over President Trump’s comments on possibly removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell—he stated he’s “not planning” to do so but didn’t “rule out anything”.
Tuesday’s swinging headlines caused brief volatility, but traders have largely dismissed the drama—benchmarks remain near record levels.

Economic Snapshot: Strong Retail Sales & Jobless Claims

• June retail sales surprised at +0.6%, beating estimates of +0.1%.
• Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, lower than the forecasted 233,000.
Markets interpreted this as a solid sign of consumer resilience, bolstering confidence in earnings momentum.

Earnings Driving Moves: Tech & Industrials

• United Airlines ($UAL)

• Shares jumped ~6% pre‑market after Q2 EPS came in $3.87 vs. $3.81 expected, though revenue was soft at $15.2B and guidance was cautious for Q3 before easing up Q4.

• PepsiCo ($PEP)

• Beat Q2 expectations, with EPS of $2.12 (+$0.09 surprise), gaining ~6.6% .

• GE Aerospace ($GE) & Travelers ($TRV)

• GE reported $1.66/share vs $1.40 est; Travelers posted nearly double profit vs. estimates at $6.51/share.

• TSMC ($TSM)

• Asian markets echoed U.S. optimism: TSM surged 3–5% after a strong Q2 report, with AI‑chip demand driving revenue beats.

• AMD ($AMD)

• Climbed ~1% pre‑market, rallying 25% month‑to‑date. The U.S. has resumed AMD chip exports to China—the MI308 AI accelerator is back in play, sparking analyst upgrades to $185 and $175 from Wells Fargo and Mizuho.

Other Movers & Sector Trends

• Lucid (LCID) stock soared ~35–44% on a major self‑driving vehicle deal with Uber/Nuro.
• MP Materials (MP) slipped ~1–6% as the rare‑earths miner announced a $500–650M secondary stock sale—and Apple is investing $500M earlier this month.
• Abbott Labs (ABT) fell ~7.4% after lowering its profit outlook, while Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) & Ingredion (INGR) dropped on tariffs and a shift by Coca‑Cola.

Sector momentum: All but energy posted gains yesterday—healthcare and tech led, energy lagged .

Valuations Creep Higher – Is the Rally Too Rich?

The S&P 500 now trades at roughly 22× forward earnings, above its 40‑year average of ~15.8 × but justified by tech dominance and robust profit margins (~12%).
Caution from analysts: this could leave stocks vulnerable if macro‑or earnings cues disappoint .

Outlook: Bullish with a Cautious Tone

• Citadel’s Scott Rubner describes the rally as entering its “seventh inning of nine” with continued momentum into September—favoring hedges starting mid‑August.
• Key upcoming events include Netflix earnings (after market), ongoing trade/tariff headlines, and next week’s jobless claims/unemployment data.

Bottom Line

Markets are holding firm on the twin pillars of strong consumer data and robust earnings, particularly within tech and industrial sectors—but elevated valuations, Fed policy jitters, and tariff headlines mean the path ahead may be bumpy.
Big names like AMD, PepsiCo, TSMC, and United Airlines are steering sentiment today—keep an eye on earnings releases and trade policy updates for near‑term catalysts.

Trending Tickers:

$SPY • $AAPL • $GOOGL • $UAL • $PEP • $GE • $TRV • $TSM • $AMD • $LCID • $MP • $ABT • $ADM • $INGR