By Alex Financials

US Markets Today — Tech Pullback, AI jitters, and a Rivian surprise

Snapshot: Stocks were mixed on Friday, Dec. 12, 2025, as a late-week rotation cooled the breakout in AI and growth names. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped while the Dow eked out a small gain; investors parsed corporate outlooks, Fed messaging, and fresh developments in oil and EV/Autonomy.

Broadcom’s outlook rattles AI exuberance (and the chip complex)

Broadcom ($AVGO) startled markets with a softer-than-expected margin outlook for AI system sales, prompting an aftershock across semiconductor and AI-linked names. The warning helped knock chip and AI-exposed stocks lower Friday — a reminder that even companies with strong revenue can recalibrate expectations when hardware and margin dynamics shift. That pullback weighed on the Nasdaq and trimmed gains in higher-multiple tech names.

Why it matters: Broadcom’s update fed a broader “AI bubble” conversation — investors who’d bid up growth names on the AI story are now more sensitive to any sign that margins or supply economics could compress. The episode accelerated a rotation into more value-oriented sectors and helped explain pockets of volatility in semiconductors.

Nvidia and the China angle: demand still there, supply reactions begin

Despite the chilly tone around some AI plays, Nvidia ($NVDA) continued to draw investor attention as reports surfaced of the company increasing production of high-end H200 chips to satisfy demand in China and other markets. That dynamic — very strong demand on one hand, but rising caution on margins for some hardware vendors — is producing a bifurcated market: a handful of dominant AI infrastructure suppliers remain sought after even as the broader chip group cools.

Market impact: If supply steps up to meet Chinese demand, near-term shortages ease but margin and pricing pressure could emerge later. Traders are watching both order flows and vendor commentary for signs of where the AI cycle goes next.

Spotlight: Rivian’s Autonomy & AI Day fuels a rally

In a counterpoint to the AI-fatigue narrative, Rivian ($RIVN) surged after revealing ambitious autonomy and AI initiatives at its Autonomy & AI Day. Announcements included an in-house inference chip, a Gen-3 autonomous driving platform, and broader sensors/LiDAR integration — plus an Autonomy+ subscription launch — which sent the stock materially higher on enthusiasm for future product differentiation and monetization routes.

Takeaway: The rally underscores that compelling product roadmaps — especially those combining hardware, software and recurring revenue — can still generate outsized moves even in a jittery market. That said, analysts caution execution risk and longer timelines to material revenue from autonomy features.

Commodities & macro: oil wobbles on geopolitics and supply stories

Oil climbed on reports of supply concerns tied to Venezuela after U.S. enforcement actions, even as the market remains vulnerable to broader weekly declines driven by demand worries and geopolitics. Brent and WTI showed modest gains on the day but were still tracking a weekly down-tick amid conflicting supply-demand signals from OPEC, the IEA, and geopolitical flare-ups. Energy stocks and related suppliers moved in sympathy.

Macro overlay: The Fed’s recent communications — slightly more dovish than some had feared for 2026 pathing — continue to factor into equities. Lower-for-longer or a smoother path for rates tends to support risk assets, but cross-currents from corporate guidance and sector-specific risks (like semiconductors) are driving headline volatility.

What to watch next (near-term catalysts)

1. Corporate outlooks and earnings commentary — more companies reporting November/December results and guidance could reframe the rotation between growth and value. Keep an eye on major chip suppliers’ commentary on AI system margins ($AVGO, $AMD) and large cloud/AI consumers ($GOOG, $MSFT).

2. Nvidia production and H200 supply signals — incremental increases in production can ease shortages but may pressure pricing later; updates from suppliers or customers will be important.

3. Macro prints and Fed comments — any fresh inflation data, labor reports, or Fed speakers that move expectations for 2026 rates will swing risk appetite.

4. Geopolitics and energy flows — developments in Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, or Caspian Sea incidents could quickly reverberate through oil and energy equities.

Bottom line

Today’s tape shows a market maturing out of the pure “AI mania” phase: investors are increasingly differentiating winners (companies with dominant infrastructure or clear monetization paths) from names that could face margin pressure or stretched expectations. That creates both opportunities and risks — concentrated leaders like $NVDA may still command premiums, while episodic shocks (like Broadcom’s outlook) can spark swift sector rotations. Keep an eye on guidance, supply-chain signals, and macro prints for the next directional clues.