Today’s Stock Market in 2-Minutes

By Alex Financials

U.S.–EU Trade Deal Sparks Rally in Mega‑Caps

Investors cheered a new trade framework between the U.S. and the EU, setting most European import tariffs at 15%, easing fears of a full‑blown trade war. This helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq open at record highs, with the Dow close behind.
The deal includes EU commitments to invest $600 b and purchase $750 b in U.S. energy, providing a boon for energy exporters.

Key Moves: Stocks in Focus

$TSLA (Tesla) & $005930.KS (Samsung)

Tesla shares climbed nearly 2–3% following news of a $16.5 b chip‑supply deal with Samsung focused on AI chip production in Texas.

$CHX: Cheniere Energy

Benefited from EU energy purchase commitments—shares rose roughly 2.6–3% on the LNG export optimism.

$AMD and $ASML

Chipmakers rallied as the trade deal removed tariffs on semiconductor equipment. AMD jumped about 4.4%, ASML up 3.2%, helped by a UBS upgrade on AMD.

$NKE (Nike)

Shares rose between 2–4% following a J.P. Morgan upgrade to “overweight,” citing improved global demand and revised earnings outlook.

$LMT (Lockheed Martin) & $BA (Boeing)

Defense stocks gained modestly: LMT approx +1.4%, Boeing around +0.7%, amid speculation of increased EU military purchases prompted by political signals.

$RVTY (Revvity)

Fell sharply (~‑9.4%) after issuing weak earnings and trimming full‑year guidance.

Macro Drivers & Market Outlook

Trade Euphoria

The U.S.–EU deal stabilizes trade policy risk and follows earlier agreements with Japan and Indonesia, reducing geopolitical uncertainty.

Earnings Crunch & the “Magnificent Seven”

Investors are eyeing earnings reports from $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $AAPL, and $GOOGL this week, which could make or break market momentum.

Fed & Inflation

A two‑day Federal Reserve meeting begins Tuesday. Despite high current rates, markets price in a potential rate cut by September (~63% odds). Key PCE and payroll data expected to guide decisions.

Strategist Bull Call

Morgan Stanley’s chief strategist sees the S&P 500 hitting 7,200 within 12 months, driven by stronger earnings, AI adoption, a weaker dollar, and potential Fed cuts in early 2026.

Snapshot Summary

Theme	Key Takeaway
Trade	US‑EU tariff deal boosts sentiment and narrows trade risk.
Sector Leaders	Energy, semis, defense, and discretionary stocks surge.
Earnings Focus	Big tech reports looming; could determine near‑term trend.
Monetary Policy	Fed likely on hold, with inflation and labor data in focus.
Bullish Forecast	S&P 500 seen rising toward 7,200 by mid‑2026.

What to Watch Next

Big Tech earnings: Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google.
Fed policy updates: especially commentary around rate trajectory.
Inflation and labor data: PCE, non-farm payrolls.
Global trade developments: China talks, EU implementation.

Overall, today’s rally reflects relief from revised trade policy risks and upbeat reactions from key sector moves. With major earnings and economic data ahead, sentiment might deepen or falter in the coming days.

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