By Alex Financials

Opening Bell: Markets Approach New Highs Amid Cautious Optimism

Wall Street kicked off the week on a steady but slightly uneasy footing. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hovered near record highs, driven by a recent tech rally, while investors braced for pivotal economic data and the lingering aftereffects of U.S. trade and tariff policies. Despite strong momentum in technology, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped by about 150 points in early trading, indicating mixed sentiment.

Tariff Turbulence: Tech Giants in the Spotlight

A major news driver today is the unexpected White House deal impacting leading semiconductor companies. Nvidia ($NVDA) and AMD ($AMD) agreed to remit 15% of their revenue from certain chip sales to China back to the U.S. government, a move described by industry insiders as “unprecedented” for U.S. exporters. Both stocks fell in premarket trading—$NVDA by about 0.7% and $AMD by more than 1%—as investors hashed out the implications of a direct government take on overseas sales.

These developments come amid President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs on a wide range of imports, with more sector-specific tariffs expected soon. Investors are watching for knock-on effects in both chip stocks and the broader market.

Tech Titans Drive the Rally (and Anxiety)

Last week’s gains were led by big tech names: Apple ($AAPL) soared to its best weekly performance since 2020, following supportive signals from Washington. Nvidia ($NVDA) closed Friday at a new high, fueled by the belief that it might dodge the harshest tariff impacts—until today’s revenue-sharing news landed. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence darling C3.ai ($AI) plummeted over 30% in pre-market trade after slashing its revenue guidance, highlighting ongoing sector volatility.

Earnings Movers: Winners and Losers

While the earnings season winds down, notable action has come from high-flyers and surprise standouts:

• AMC Entertainment ($AMC) jumped 8% in premarket, reporting a 26% year-over-year surge in Q2 attendance thanks to blockbuster summer releases.

• Monday.com ($MNDY) plunged nearly 20% after earnings missed Wall Street’s EPS expectations, stoking concerns about broader slowdowns in tech and enterprise software spending.

• Several small- and mid-cap stocks made the day’s top gainers list, including Nextdoor Holdings ($KIND), Akebia Therapeutics ($AKBA), and Power Solutions International ($PSIX), each up more than 13%.

Inflation Data and Fed Watch: The Next Big Test

The week’s headline economic event is Tuesday’s release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a key update on U.S. inflation. Economists predict a modest uptick—with additional upward pressure likely from the recent tariffs. The Producer Price Index and retail sales data later in the week will add context. Markets are now pricing in a high probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, but hotter-than-expected inflation could challenge those bets.

Momentum and Best Performers

Multiple 2025 momentum darlings remain in focus, including:

• Palantir Technologies ($PLTR), up 109% year-to-date.

• GE Vernova ($GEV) and Super Micro Computer ($SMCI), both more than doubling in value so far this year.

• Other standouts in the S&P 500: NRG Energy ($NRG), Seagate Technology ($STX), and Western Digital ($WDC).

Crypto Corner: Bitcoin Breaks Out

Bitcoin reached another all-time high in early trading. Although no single catalyst was identified, the move was likely bolstered by positive sentiment among influential investors and public endorsements of continued buying.

Looking Ahead: Macro Risks and Policy Uncertainties

Beyond immediate headlines, investors remain wary of potential dot-com bubble echoes, with some analysts warning of overheating in certain sectors. Ongoing uncertainty around trade policy, Fed timing, and global demand will steer market direction for the rest of the summer.

Conclusion

Today’s market narrative boils down to three themes:

• The outsized influence (and volatility) in tech, especially around new tariff arrangements.

• Anticipation for inflation data that could remake interest rate expectations.

• Watchful optimism as U.S. stocks continue to flirt with all-time highs, even as clouds gather on the horizon.